Imagine trying to plan a city from scratch, anticipating where businesses will thrive, where people will choose to live, and how the urban landscape will evolve over time. This is the challenge facing urban planners in China’s Xiongan New Area, a massive undertaking designed to relieve pressure on Beijing. Researchers at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) have developed a novel modeling approach to simulate urban growth in this unprecedented situation. Unlike traditional urban growth models that rely on existing high-density urban areas for learning transition rules, the UTM team tackled the challenge of predicting the development of a completely new metropolis.

The team’s C-FLUS model combines a modified Cellular Automata (CA) with a ‘random planted seeds mechanism’ based on local maximums. This ingenious approach allows the model to simulate the birth and expansion of a new urban center, even without prior examples of similar high-density development. By analyzing current driving forces, the C-FLUS model can identify potential starting zones and simulate urban development under different scenarios. The research indicates that the new urban area is most likely to emerge in the northwest of Xiongxian, rapidly expanding toward Rongcheng and Anxin, eventually covering the northern part of Xiongan New Area.

This research is significant because it provides a valuable tool for urban planners to anticipate and manage the growth of Xiongan New Area. By visualizing potential expansion patterns, planners can make informed decisions about infrastructure development, resource allocation, and environmental protection. The C-FLUS model enables a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to urban planning, minimizing potential negative impacts and maximizing the benefits of this ambitious project. Furthermore, the method can help planners to evaluate the impact of urban expansion in Xiongan New Area, enabling them to refine strategies for sustainable growth. The model developed at UTM offers a powerful way to evaluate the impact of urban expansion, potentially leading to more sustainable and resilient urban environments in the future. The next steps involve refining the model with real-world data as the Xiongan New Area develops, further enhancing its predictive capabilities and ensuring its continued relevance to urban planning efforts. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116031